The Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA

Habitat suitability maps are commonly created by modeling a species’ environmental niche from occurrences and environmental characteristics. Here, we introduce the hyper-envelope modeling interface (HEMI), providing a new method for creating habitat suitability models using Bezier surfaces to model a species niche in environmental space. HEMI allows modeled surfaces to be visualized and edited in environmental space based on expert knowledge and does not require absence points for model development. The modeled surfaces require relatively few parameters compared to similar modeling approaches and may produce models that better match ecological niche theory. As a case study, we modeled the invasive species tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) in the western USA. We compare results from HEMI with those from existing similar modeling approaches (including BioClim, BioMapper, and Maxent). We used synthetic surfaces to create visualizations of the various models in environmental space and used modified area under the curve (AUC) statistic and akaike information criterion (AIC) as measures of model performance. We show that HEMI produced slightly better AUC values, except for Maxent and better AIC values overall. HEMI created a model with only ten parameters while Maxent produced a model with over 100 and BioClim used only eight. Additionally, HEMI allowed visualization and editing of the model in environmental space to develop alternative potential habitat scenarios. The use of Bezier surfaces can provide simple models that match our expectations of biological niche models and, at least in some cases, out-perform more complex approaches.     

Wilderness permit accuracy: Differences between reported and actual use

Wilderness permits are valuable tools for recording backcountry use patterns. They provide a valuable basis upon which management decisions are made. Unfortunately, significant inaccuracies in reporting permit data result from noncompliance, transmission errors, and changes in visitor plans. Data from Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California show that in 1978, 97 percent of the parties obtained wilderness permits. Changes in visitor plans resulted in an over-reporting of total persons by 8 percent and of visitor nights by 23 percent. The latter was due primarily to shortening of trip length. Over-reporting was greatest when permits were issued well in advance of the trip. Backcountry managers should be aware of possible inaccuracies in permit data and may want to adjust for them under certain circumstances.     

Global potential net primary production predicted from vegetation class, precipitation, and temperature

Net primary production (NPP), the difference between CO2 fixed by photosynthesis and CO2 lost to autotrophic respiration, is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle. Our goal was to develop a simple regression model to estimate global NPP using climate and land cover data. Approximately 5600 global data points with observed mean annual NPP, land cover class, precipitation, and temperature were compiled. Precipitation was better correlated with NPP than temperature, and it explained much more of the variability in mean annual NPP for grass- or shrub-dominated systems (r2 = 0.68) than for tree-dominated systems (r2 = 0.39). For a given precipitation level, tree-dominated systems had significantly higher NPP (approximately 100-150 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) than non-tree-dominated systems. Consequently, previous empirical models developed to predict NPP based on precipitation and temperature (e.g., the Miami model) tended to overestimate NPP for non-tree-dominated systems. Our new model developed at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (the NCEAS model) predicts NPP for tree-dominated systems based on precipitation and temperature; but for non-tree-dominated systems NPP is solely a function of precipitation because including a temperature function increased model error for these systems. Lower NPP in non-tree-dominated systems is likely related to decreased water and nutrient use efficiency and higher nutrient loss rates from more frequent fire disturbances. Late 20th century aboveground and total NPP for global potential native vegetation using the NCEAS model are estimated to be approximately 28 Pg and approximately 46 Pg C/yr, respectively. The NCEAS model estimated an approximately 13% increase in global total NPP for potential vegetation from 1901 to 2000 based on changing precipitation and temperature patterns.     

Invasive species and coal bed methane development in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

One of the fastest growing areas of natural gas production is coal bed methane (CBM) due to the large monetary returns and increased demand for energy from consumers. The Powder River Basin, Wyoming is one of the most rapidly expanding areas of CBM development with projections of the establishment of up to 50,000 wells. CBM disturbances may make the native ecosystem more susceptible to invasion by non-native species, but there are few studies that have been conducted on the environmental impacts of this type of resource extraction. To evaluate the potential effects of CBM development on native plant species distribution and patterns of non-native plant invasion, 36 modified Forest Inventory and Analysis plots (each comprised of four 168-m² subplots) were established in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming. There were 73 168-m² subplots on control sites; 42 subplots on secondary disturbances; 14 on major surface disturbances; eight on well pads; and seven on sites downslope of CBM wells water discharge points. Native plant species cover ranged from 39.5 ± 2.7% (mean ± 1 SE) in the secondary disturbance subplots to 17.7 ± 7.5% in the pad subplots. Non-native plant species cover ranged from 31.0 ± 8.4% in the discharge areas to 14.7 ± 8.9% in the pad subplots. The control subplots had significantly less non-native species richness than the combined disturbance types. The combined disturbance subplots had significantly greater soil salinity than the control sites. These results suggest that CBM development and associated disturbances may facilitate the establishment of non-native plants. Future research and management decisions should consider the accumulative landscape-scale effects of CBM development on preserving native plant diversity.     

Evaluating wilderness recreational opportunities: Application of an impact matrix

An inventory of the severity and spatial distribution of wilderness campsite impacts in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks identified a total of 273 distinct nodes of campsites or “management areas.” A campsite impact matrix was developed to evaluate management areas based on total impacts (correlated to the total area of campsite development) and the density, or concentration, of impacts relative to each area's potentially campable area. The matrix is used to quantify potential recreational opportunities for wilderness visitors in a spectrum from areas offering low impact-dispersed camping to those areas offering high impact-concentrated camping. Wilderness managers can use this type of information to evaluate use distribution patterns, identify areas to increase or decrease use, and to identify areas needing site-specific regulations (e.g., one-night camping limits) to preserve wilderness resources and guarantee outstanding opportunities for solitude.     

Rapid Assessment of Plant Diversity Patterns: A Methodology for Landscapes

We present a rapid, cost-efficient methodology to link plantdiversity surveys from plots to landscapes using: (1) unbiasedsite selection based on remotely sensed information; (2) multi-scale field techniques to assess plant diversity; (3)mathematical models (species-area curves) to estimate thenumber of species in larger areas corrected for within-typeheterogeneity; and (4) mathematical techniques to estimatetotal species richness and patterns of plant diversity in alandscape. We demonstrate the methodology in a 754 ha studyarea in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A.,using four 0.025 ha and twenty-one 0.1 ha multi-scalevegetation plots. We recorded 330 plant species (1/3 thenumber of plants recorded in the 1074 km² Park) in the2.2 ha area within the plots: this represents a samplingintensity of 0.29% of the 754 ha study site. We estimated 552plant species, about half the plant species recorded in the Park,in just 0.7% of the Parks area. We show how this rapid,cost-efficient methodology: (1) produces a rich informationbase on the patterns of native plant diversity and thedistribution of non-native plant species and keystoneecosystems; and (2) can be easily adapted for other nationaland state parks, national forests, wildlife refuges, and nature reserves.     

Vegetation and soil recovery in wilderness campsites closed to visitor use

Recreational use of wilderness results in impacts to vegetation and soil in trails and campsites. Traditionally, campsite impact studies have compared campsites receiving various levels of use with unused control areas. Field studies in Sequoia National Park, California, indicate that the degree of impact to vegetation and soils also varies within campsites. The central areas of campsites, where trampling is concentrated, show lower plant species diversity, differences in relative species cover, more highly compacted soils, and lower soil nutrient concentrations than do peripheral, moderately trampled, and untrampled areas within the same campsite. Three years after closure to visitor use, the central areas show less increase in mean foliar plant cover, and soils remain more highly compacted than in previously moderately trampled areas of the same sites. Changes in relative species cover over time are used to assess both resiliency to trampling and species composition recovery within campsites closed to visitor use.